As corporate travel teams tackle rising costs, traveler safety concerns and ongoing disruption, sustainability has recently taken a back seat for many.
Yet recent disruptions across the aviation industry suggest that these priorities may be more closely linked than most organizations realize. Faced with fuel price volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting operating costs, airlines have been forced to reduce capacity and make difficult decisions about which flights to maintain. Understanding what criteria goes into those decisions reveals an important lesson for travel managers: many of the same strategies that can help you reduce your environmental footprint can also help strengthen business travel program resilience.
Why airlines cancel some flights and protect others
Recent volatility in global energy markets has highlighted just how dependent aviation remains on conventional jet fuel. Despite growing investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), conventional jet fuel still accounts for over 99% of the sector’s energy consumption.
Although some airlines are mitigating the impact through fuel hedging, the surge in crude oil prices has nonetheless led to mass flight cancellations in recent months—notably at Lufthansa (20,000 flights cut) and United (5% of its schedule cancelled). For travel managers, it’s crucial to understand what makes certain flights more likely to be protected.
1. Route profitability
The most important consideration for airlines is typically profitability. A full flight is not necessarily the most profitable flight. Airlines evaluate the balance between load factor and unit revenue, which means flights expected to be full may well be cancelled, while others with lower occupancy are kept if the balance between load factor and yield is more favorable.
Profitability often goes hand in hand with business travel. As a result, routes serving a high proportion of business travelers often receive greater protection because they typically generate higher yields than leisure-focused destinations. Even if fully booked, a flight to Bali is more likely to be cancelled than a London–New York route.
2. Network importance
Airlines also consider how individual flights support their broader network. A flight that feeds passengers into a major hub may be prioritized because cancelling it could disrupt multiple downstream connections. For example, a Marseille–Orly flight is much more likely to be cancelled than a Marseille–Roissy flight, as the latter potentially feeds into several long-haul connections.
3. Flight frequency
Flight frequency is another factor to consider. Cancelling one flight on a route with ten daily departures is not the same as cancelling one on a route with only two as travelers booking high frequency routes typically have more rebooking options available.
4. Aircraft efficiency
Understanding the aircraft type your preferred suppliers use on key routes is another strong indicator of flight stability. To save fuel, airlines naturally prioritize newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft. By choosing a flight operating on the Airbus A350, you not only reduce the risk of your flight being cancelled, but also your carbon footprint.
5. Airport slot cancellations
Another point to consider involves “slots” (takeoff and landing windows). These are very expensive and subject to strict regulations. For example, an airline cannot cancel a specific slot—such as the 8:00 AM Monday flight—more than a certain number of times without risking the loss of that slot, which would then be returned to the market. Consequently, a flight that has already been cancelled several times in a particular slot is highly unlikely to remain on the schedule through the end of the year.
6. Geopolitical disruption
The geopolitical context itself has a major impact on flight schedules. Recent conflicts in the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine have naturally coincided with flight cancellations—sometimes on a massive scale.
What this means for travel managers
Prioritizing essential travel, selecting direct flights where appropriate, choosing more fuel-efficient aircraft, opting for the train when possible, and thoughtfully evaluating trip necessity —measures currently discussed primarily through an environmental lens—will likely become necessities driven by energy constraints. Travel programs that focus on high-value trips rather than high travel volumes may be better positioned when airlines reduce capacity or rebalance networks during periods of market stress. By embedding sustainability principles into your travel strategy today, you can not only reduce your travel-related emissions, but also build a program that is better prepared for future disruption. Contact our team to explore strategies that can help strengthen travel program resilience, improve the traveler experience, and support your business objectives.
